Tom Scollon

Well it does depend on which side of the chart you are on.

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If you are a motorist you are clapping your hands but I have to say, for the overall global outlook, it is not good news. And whether we like it or not the global outlook does matter, as the impact of a slide into another recession has serious ramifications for even the ‘man in the street’ to use a sexist euphemism.

But I not use these words lightly as though the common perception is that recessions are negative for big business in a relative sense the impact on the average person is much greater. I am currently based in France and I see many more ‘street’ people than at any other time I have been here. Europe is still sick.

Demand for oil is a health indicator for the global economy. Many will argue it is also about OPEC and competing oil interests – and the wars on supply and pricing that go on between the factions. But fundamentally it is about global economic health.

So. To the chart. This is classic Elliott. A classic downward slide. Throughout most of 2014 the black stuff was in free fall. Technically a bounce could happen and we should see a recovery during the coming months. But it is likely to be short lived even if it was to happen.

The overall momentum is still down. 


Enjoy the ride

Tom Scollon