Brambles (BIL) is a stock I have been in and out of over the last several years – mainly out! Since December last year it has been range trading between $3.30 and $5.50 (refer to daily chart). Like others I got on board at one of its early attempts at recovery, thinking it may be potentially a strong mover only to ditch it not so many days or weeks later.

If you look at a monthly chart as below you can see the Elliot Wave counts of Waves 1, 2 and 3. It is now attempting a Wave 4 corrective move up to between $5.90 and $7.30 - approximately. Out of interest you may like to attempt to calculate the Fibonacci extension here to verify my figures.

click chart for more detail

BIL may well pass through these Wave 4 levels but on the strength of the data we have before us, it does not appear to be the likely outcome. Things can change dramatically, but that would be surprising.

Bad news so often compounds and that is why it is so much easier to stay away from stocks that seem to attract the blues – like AMP which could still fall even further than its $4.26 in August.

Don’t be a missionary for the blue bloods nor scrape the bottom of the barrel of stocks if you want to build a sound, long term portfolio. If you are seeking a short term risky play yes by all means have a bet but your entry and exit timing must be superb.

If BIL fails to push through Wave 4 then it is more than likely that it will fall through current support levels and who knows where it settles and for strict technical traders who cares? All of this of course fits with what we read in the media because the “fundamental” players – viz a viz the takeover merchants wait in the wings until the stock falls to an attractive takeover price – who knows – maybe around $3.00 could be attractive?

In the meantime there are plenty of better buy opportunities out there so go get them and don’t waste your time on what is still a “loser”

Enjoy the ride.

Tom Scollon