Tom Scollon
Tom Scollon
Chief Editor

The truth will set you free but first you will want to slash your wrists.

That was the thought that crossed my mind when I received an email last week from a reader ‘Perry’ – that contained some bouquets for a number of writers. Well at least I think mine was a bouquet:

I found Tom Scollon's articles the sort of stuff to make one go out and slash ones wrists but have now come to appreciate what in my limited view to be a very sobering yet forthright view on things.

But bricks are also good as they keep us sharp as we duck and weave.

I cannot ‘acknowledge’ my opening hybrid statement as apart from it having mixed parenthood I am unsure as to who was the initial creator. And in any case the original version I heard is not printable here.

But seriously Perry thank you for your feedback – that is much appreciated by the team.

I am conscious that much of my writings contain little to feel good about at the moment but believe me I look for good news but find little. But I hope and aim to find the good news ahead of most other analysts and that won’t be hard as it seems to be the majority are extremely downcast and pessimistic at the moment. So called global experts are talking of a recession – and some even use the ‘D’ word – that will last several years.

Anecdotally I hear more people ‘in the street’ talking of tough times. They see job losses close to home, businesses going into administration and the list goes on. Job losses create job losses and this is why we could well hit 7% unemployment within a year or so. Twice the level of just over a year ago.

But Perry I promised myself that I would find a positive note as a result of your email.

And the good news story is that when we recover from this dreaded lurgy we will go into the mother of all booms. No-one believes me but that is not new.

But technically I have to go to a monthly chart to find the next rally and this is what I see:

click chart for more detail
click to enlarge

A new high – which may be almost 250% from the low we may see in the coming weeks.

But the caveat Perry is that it may take some time – 5-6 years to get there. But I am inclined to think that most of the bad news will be on the table by end 2009 and then we will see a slow recovery. But I do see some light at the end of the tunnel for equities – so don’t go away.

Unfortunately for some – particularly those who lose jobs or are trying to retire in financial peace – the next boom could be just too far away.

But yes the phoenix will rise again

Enjoy the ride

Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst